Show stats panel in occurrence list sidebar

[mihow]

Summary

Frontend consumer for the /occurrences/stats/model-agreement/ endpoint added in #1307. Adds a Stats panel at the top of the occurrence list sidebar, above the filter sections.

• New OccurrenceStats component (ui/src/pages/occurrences/occurrence-stats.tsx)
• Wired into occurrences.tsx, threading the same active filter array the list view sends to useOccurrences — so the stats always match the current result set (taxon, deployment, date, verification status, default filters, etc.)
• Bars rendered, top to bottom:
  • Verified occurrences — verified_pct with the raw verified_count alongside (e.g. 0% (121)), so a small-but-nonzero set that rounds to 0% still surfaces the count.
  • Agreement (exact taxon) — agreed_exact_pct, with agreed_exact_count / verified_with_prediction_count and inline Wilson 95% CI.
  • Agreement (any rank) — agreed_any_rank_pct, same shape (exact matches plus disagreements whose LCA is at any real taxonomic rank).
  • Agreement (≥ <RANK>) — agreed_coarser_rank_pct, only rendered when the caller passes ?agreement_coarsest_rank=<RANK> and the backend echoes it. No CI in the BE response yet, so the bar shows just the point estimate.
  • Cohen's κ (beyond chance) — signed [-1, 1] bar, zero centred.
• Loading skeleton; renders nothing on error so it never blocks the list.

Stacked on the backend branch — base is feat/human-model-agreement-endpoint (#1307), not main. Rebase/retarget to main once #1307 merges.

Wilson CI rendered inline (not on its own row)

The Wilson 95% CI is folded into each agreement bar instead of sitting on a separate row. The bar is a single 0–100% track with:

• a translucent CI band (bg-primary/40) from low to high
• 2px-wide CI bound caps (whiskers) at the low / high edges
• a 3px-wide dark vertical marker at the point estimate, slightly taller than the track

This puts the uncertainty visually adjacent to the number it qualifies — the bar is the CI, the marker is the point estimate — so a wide band immediately reads as "shaky number" and a tight band as "confident", without the reader having to cross-reference a separate row.

Filter parity

The panel reuses the list view's filters array verbatim and converts it to query params with the same active/error rules as getFetchUrl (value?.length && !error). The endpoint accepts the full occurrence-list filter set (#1307), so the numbers stay consistent with the visible results.

Test plan

• tsc --noEmit — no errors in touched files
• eslint + prettier clean on new/modified files
• Live browser render verified against project 18 (Vermont Atlas of Life) via the worktree dev server proxied to the Endpoint for stats about verified occurrences #1307 backend. All four core bars render: VERIFIED OCCURRENCES 0% (121), AGREEMENT (EXACT TAXON) 90% (90 of 100) with 95% CI 83–94%, AGREEMENT (ANY RANK) 94% (94 of 100) with 95% CI 88–97%, COHEN'S κ 0.84. The coarser-rank bar is hidden when ?agreement_coarsest_rank is not supplied — verified by direct API call.
• Live filter reactivity verified: toggling Default Filters off set ?apply_defaults=false and the Stats panel re-queried with the same param. Same filter array drives both list and stats.

Toolchain note for reviewers

The worktree ui/ has no node_modules. Installing under the host's Node 22 breaks the dev server (nova-ui-kit dereferences a React-18 internal removed in React 19 at tailwind-config eval). Use the repo-pinned Node 18 (.nvmrc → 18.12.0): nvm use 18.12.0 && yarn install && yarn start. Under Node 18 it boots cleanly.

Design notes

The "agreement rate" is the share of human-verified occurrences where the human pick matched the model's pick. Three calibration ideas are baked into this panel:

Raw counts beside the percentage — Verified occurrences shows 0% (121), making the rounded-to-zero percentage readable as "121 of ~24k" rather than literally zero. Each agreement bar also shows K of N so the reader instantly sees how many verifications the rate is built on.

Hard cutoff vs. confidence interval — rather than a yes/no "enough data" line, the Wilson 95% CI shows how shaky the number is. A Wilson score interval behaves well at small samples, so when few occurrences are verified the band is wide and as more get verified it tightens. This is more honest than picking a magic threshold like "30 verifications" (which is a textbook rule of thumb that only holds if verifications are a random sample — they aren't, people verify the unusual / uncertain / eye-catching ones first).

Plain agreement vs. agreement beyond chance — plain agreement % has a blind spot: if 95% of moths in a project are one common species, human and model "agree" most of the time just by both guessing the common one — that's luck, not skill. Cohen's κ subtracts that expected-by-chance agreement; κ of 1.0 = perfect, 0 = no better than guessing, negative = worse than chance. Same caveat as the CI: it still only describes the occurrences people chose to verify, not the whole project.

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